Protect Assets. Beat Averages.
With Science.
Professional asset managers need more than stories and opinions.
You need quantitative analysis that identifies risks before losses occur—
and opportunities the market misprices.
9 Proprietary Ratings
Billions of Data Points
15,000 Companies
40-Year Financials
Your Clients Expect Fiduciary Excellence.
The Market Doesn’t Care.
Complexity
Protecting assets from permanent capital impairment requires analyzing balance sheets, income statements, cash flows, and valuation extremes across thousands of securities.
Noise
Sell-side research, media hype, and momentum traders create dangerous disconnects between price and value. Stories replace analysis.
Accountability
Your fiduciary duty demands you identify risks before losses occur—not explain them afterward. You need probability-based risk assessment, not backward-looking ratios.
The Gap
Traditional research platforms give you lagging metrics, analyst opinions, and price targets.
What you actually need: Forward-looking risk probabilities based on fundamental financial deterioration patterns.
We Built What Asset Managers Actually Need
Equity Risk Sciences analyzed 40 years of financial data across 15,000 companies to identify the statistical patterns that precede losses. We don’t predict prices. We calculate the probability of financial deterioration—then let you decide if the risk/reward justifies the position.
We know you’re drowning in data but starving for actionable intelligence. We know sell-side research won’t tell you when to sell. We know your clients hold you accountable for losses, not the pundits who recommended the stock.
That’s why we built ERS.
How ERS Works: Three Steps to Better Risk Management
Analyze
Input any portfolio or ticker. Our 9 proprietary ratings instantly quantify risk across balance sheet strength, earnings quality, valuation extremes, and historical deterioration patterns.
Identify
See which holdings have high Loss Indicator™ (LI) scores, extreme Price Risk Indicators™ (PRI), or poor Fiduciary Stock Navigator™ (FSN) ratings. Understand why statistically—not anecdotally.
Act
Use our quantitative risk framework to rebalance portfolios, avoid speculative positions, and fulfill your fiduciary duty with documented, defensible analysis.
ERS’s 9 Proprietary Stock Risk Ratings
Unlike traditional Wall Street analysts that rely on opinions, estimates, and qualitative factors, ERS’s ratings are 100% quantitative—
derived from actual financial statement data and 40-year statistical patterns.
Price Risk Indicator™ (PRI™)
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
A measure and rating of the statistical probability and magnitude of a stock’s future price changes.
- “A” or “A+”: Very low price ratios. Inexpensive or bargain-priced compared to both historical norms and standard valuation benchmarks.
- “B”: Moderately low price ratios. Priced attractively but not at its lowest levels.
- “C”: Average price ratios. Reasonably priced relative to its historical and objective valuation standards.
- “D”: High price ratios. Expensively-priced compared to its historical norms and standard valuation metrics.
- “E” or “F”: Very high price ratios. Significantly overpriced and potentially a poor investment.
Loss Indicator™ (LI™)
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
A measure of a company’s liquidity, financial strength, and durability.
- “A” or “A+”: Strong financial health, with a low likelihood of liquidity issues or structural weakness.
- “B”: Overall financially stable. May have some moderate vulnerabilities worth monitoring.
- “C”: Average financial condition. No major strengths or weaknesses.
- “D”: Emerging signs of financial risk, such as rising debt or weakening liquidity, which may threaten long-term resilience.
- “E” or “F”: Significant financial weakness, with critical liquidity or solvency concerns that pose a high risk to investors.
Fiduciary Stock Navigator™ (FSN™)
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
A rating of both the financial condition and valuation of a stock.
- “A” or “A+”: Both financially strong and growing, while also priced attractively, making it a solid investment.
- “B”: Relatively strong with some growth potential, making it a reasonable investment.
- “C”: Moderate strength and stable fundamentals, but it is neither particularly inexpensive nor overpriced.
- “D”: Weakening or showing signs of trouble, and it is becoming expensive relative to its value.
- “E” or “F”: Weak or deteriorating, and likely overpriced, presenting significant investment risks.
4 Dimensions of Risk™ (4D™)
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Measures risk across four core dimensions—solvency, valuation, profitability, and tangible equity—to quantify the overall probability and magnitude of loss.
- “A” or “A+” – Very strong; indicates exceptionally low overall financial and valuation risk.
- “B” – Solid strength in most dimensions, with only modest weaknesses; reflects generally low risk with manageable concerns.
- “C” – Average strength across the four dimensions; reflects neutral, mid-range risk that warrants normal monitoring.
- “D” – Noticeable weaknesses in one or more dimensions; reflects elevated risk and reduced financial resilience.
- “E” or “F” – Significant deterioration ; signals high vulnerability and substantial risk of loss.
Valuation Metric 1™ (V1™)
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Identifies where the company’s current price-to-sales ratio sits within its own historical P/S range, indicating whether valuation is low, middle, or high relative to its past.
- “A” or “A+” – P/S ratio is near the lowest end of the company’s historical range; historically attractive valuation.
- “B” – P/S ratio is moderately below the midpoint of its historical range; relatively favorable pricing.
- “C” – P/S ratio is near the middle of its historical range; neither cheap nor expensive based on past norms.
- “D” – P/S ratio is above the midpoint of its historical range; valuation is becoming historically elevated.
- “E” or “F” – P/S ratio is near the top of its historical range; historically expensive and potentially exposed to downside risk.
eLiquidity™
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Evaluates short-term financial flexibility using objective liquidity ratios such as the current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio.
- “A” or “A+” – Very strong liquidity ratios; ample short-term financial flexibility and excellent capacity to meet obligations.
- “B” – Solid liquidity levels; generally able to cover short-term needs with modest cushion.
- “C” – Adequate liquidity; sufficient coverage of near-term obligations but with limited margin for stress.
- “D” – Weak liquidity; ratios indicate constrained flexibility and potential pressure during financial stress.
- “E” or “F” – Very poor liquidity; insufficient short-term coverage and high vulnerability to cash-flow disruption.
eStrength™
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Assesses the company’s underlying financial strength by examining balance-sheet quality, leverage, and stability of financial resources.
- “A” or “A+” – Very strong balance-sheet health with low leverage and robust financial resources.
- “B” – Solid financial strength; manageable leverage and generally stable core metrics.
- “C” – Average strength; adequate but unexceptional balance-sheet quality and leverage levels.
- “D” – Weak financial strength; elevated leverage or declining core resources signal rising vulnerability.
- “E” or “F” – Very weak financial condition; high leverage or deteriorating resources indicate significant financial risk.
eDurability™
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Measures the consistency and resilience of revenues, margins, and business performance over time.
- “A” or “A+” – Very consistent, resilient long-term performance, with stable revenues and margins.
- “B” – Generally durable performance with only modest variability over time.
- “C” – Average consistency; results fluctuate in line with typical business-cycle patterns.
- “D” – Noticeable inconsistency; revenues or margins show meaningful volatility or decline.
- “E” or “F” – Very weak durability; highly erratic or deteriorating performance signals elevated long-term risk.
eValuation™
Numeric Scale: 150 (best) to -250 (worst)
Quantifies the statistical relationship between current valuation metrics and long-term fundamentals to estimate downside risk and potential valuation compression.
- “A” or “A+” – Valuation is very low relative to long-term fundamentals; historically favorable with minimal compression risk.
- “B” – Moderately low valuation; attractively priced with limited downside from valuation factors.
- “C” – Neutral valuation; pricing aligns with long-term fundamental levels and typical historical norms.
- “D” – Elevated valuation; pricing is above fundamental support and carries meaningful compression risk.
- “E” or “F” – Very high valuation; significantly exceeds fundamental levels and signals substantial downside risk.
Billions of Data Points. Decades of Patterns
Zero Guesswork.
15,000
Companies
Complete coverage of US equities with full fundamental data—not just the S&P 500.
40
Year Histories
Financial statements, ratios, and price data going back four decades. We see what happened in ’87, 2000, 2008, 2020—and what preceded each crash.
Billions
of Data Points
Every line item, every ratio, every pattern—quantified, normalized, and analyzed for statistical significance.
What This Means for You
When NVIDIA trades at 50x sales (top 0.1% historically), we don’t tell you a story.
We show you what happened to the last 100 companies that traded at similar extremes.
Spoiler: It wasn’t good.
Case Study: What Traditional Research Missed
Example: NVIDIA (2024)
What Wall Street Said
- “Strong AI demand justifies premium valuation”
- “Buy on any dip”
- “Price target: $200+”
- “Revolutionary technology warrants exceptional multiples”
What ERS Data Showed
- PRI: -201 (valuation extreme)
- Trading at 50x sales (99.9th percentile historically)
- Historical pattern: When ERS’s ratings have indicated high risk, NVIDIA’s returns have underperformed their own historic averages
The Fiduciary Question
Is this an appropriate holding for a conservative portfolio? Our data says no. What does yours say?
The Choice is Clear
Without ERS
- Hold speculative stocks without quantifying downside risk
- Rely on analyst opinions and momentum
- Explain losses to clients after they occur
- Face fiduciary liability for undisclosed risks
- Underperform risk-adjusted benchmarks
With ERS
- Identify high-risk positions before losses occur
- Document fiduciary due diligence with quantitative analysis
- Avoid valuation extremes that destroy capital
- Construct portfolios with asymmetric risk/reward profiles
- Beat averages through disciplined, data-driven investing
Start Protecting Assets Today.
Questions? Call us:
(401) 450-4040 | (203) 254-0000 | (617) 684-3900